| Grammar speaks of events occurring in three | | | | by racially distinct administrators. Opposition to |
| plains. The past was, the future will happen, and | | | | LB1024 was high before its passing, the Governor |
| we live now, the present. However, operating in | | | | faced strong opposition for signing it, the |
| the information age, the age of instant global | | | | Attorney General believes it is in violation of |
| communication, makes the future now. Gates [1] | | | | federal law and unconstitutional and Omaha's most |
| wrote we are citizens of an information society. | | | | famous citizen, Warren Buffet, expressed his |
| He noted that past generations, and past societies | | | | strong opposition.Senator Chambers is the only |
| found ways to gather information, get more | | | | African-American state senator who is |
| work done, increase life spans, and improve their | | | | controversial and outspoken. Many of his claims |
| standards of living. Time was not as critical in | | | | include racially provocative statements against |
| those past ages. A message from a ruler may | | | | police, school administrators, teachers, and fellow |
| take months to arrive by sea courier. The Pony | | | | senators. By contrast, to Mayor Ryan, Senator |
| Express was six days. Airmail was cross-country | | | | Chambers does not appear to have a vision |
| overnight. The time span between thought and | | | | based on strategic thinking. Senator Chambers' |
| action are virtually unidentifiable today. Although | | | | term in the Unicameral ends in 2008 and he |
| leaders rely on collective knowledge sharing, | | | | cannot run again because of imposed term |
| leaders who engage in strategic thinking, imagining | | | | limits.Morgan [10] offers some thoughts on social |
| events as happening rather than will happen, | | | | construction of reality. What he writes is people |
| allows them to view the present as their personal | | | | have images of themselves and these images |
| and organizational future.This paper considers how | | | | unfold into their reality. Two leaders identified thus |
| important strategic thinking is for leaders who | | | | far have diversely different views of reality. One |
| want to shape their future and the future of their | | | | holds a vision of what can be for the city while |
| environment. Strategic thinking is the starting point | | | | the other fights against change using deeply |
| for creating vision. Traditional planning gives way | | | | entrenched assumptions of the power of others |
| to flexible organizational structures that change | | | | to shape events.Another person, a division head |
| "on the fly."Strategy in past generations allowed | | | | of a large First Data Corporation region [11], |
| leaders time for thinking, sensing a vision, clarifying | | | | offered some insight into strategic thinking and |
| the vision, articulating it to begin considering action | | | | being visionary. In an impromptu interview, she |
| plans. Accepting that the future is no longer an | | | | held that having a focus on what is possible |
| event to happen later, this paper explores how | | | | helped her rise within a company at a time when |
| leaders think, envision, articulate, and plan. How do | | | | it was having serious leadership troubles. When |
| leaders continue to use strategy to their | | | | everyone else was seeking safety, she sought |
| advantage in a rapidly changing global | | | | innovation-providing direction when it appeared |
| environment? The answer is in the age of | | | | there was none. Her member services region is |
| possibilities [2]. Today, as never before we are | | | | the western United States, Canada, and Mexico. |
| free from traditional bonds of work, we are free | | | | She said, "I thrive on chaos. When things look the |
| to choose our futures as well as shape them to | | | | most confused, I see my division diversified, |
| suit our own desires and needs.This age is an | | | | flattened, with empowered subordinate |
| extension of Gates' information society. We have | | | | managers."Our dialogue continued on chaos with |
| the ability to choose our reality in a way that | | | | Kim conceding she manages chaos within set |
| never before existed. In the past, a baker's son | | | | organizational plans and policies. This lead to her |
| became a baker. However, many leaders of the | | | | admission that she is more ordered in her |
| past came from unexpected places. The Biblical | | | | expectations and spends more time planning than |
| King David was the young son tending sheep (1 | | | | thinking and creating vision.Strategic PlanningHill and |
| Samuel 16:11) and Jesus was just the carpenter's | | | | Jones [12] discuss strategic planning with the same |
| son whose mother we know (Matthew 13:55) [3]. | | | | cautions of Davis [13]. One concept of planning is |
| Truman had leadership thrust upon him. These | | | | doing so under uncertainties. In life and business, |
| people saw a point on the horizon but events | | | | the only certain is uncertainty. Organizations |
| changes their vision. The age of possibilities allows | | | | cannot plan for the future because it is |
| us to rewrite our future as events | | | | unpredictable. Another consideration is planning |
| dictate.Accepting that we can change as events | | | | cannot be a top-management function alone. This |
| dictate suggests that there is a less linear | | | | "ivory tower" planning may result in senior leaders |
| structure in this image and a more chaotic | | | | thinking in a vacuum, being enthusiastic about a |
| non-linear structure. Sanders [4] describes an | | | | plan and having no operational realities. Finally, |
| organizational structure as a known initial condition | | | | strategic planning often suffers because planners |
| but the future appears random. Using the model | | | | have a short-range view of the current |
| of the "Lorenz Attractor," she presents a view of | | | | environment missing the dynamics of the |
| interacting and interrelated parts that appear | | | | competitive environment.Mintzberg, et al devotes |
| disorderly until a closer inspection reveals the | | | | a section to "Planning's Unplanned Troubles." They |
| spiraling order hidden in the model. The Gates' | | | | explain that planning establishes inflexibility. They |
| information society and the Taylor and Wacker | | | | support the assertion presented above with the |
| age of possibilities do not depend on a linear | | | | fallacy of predetermination. This fallacy says |
| progression of thought and action and Sanders | | | | organizations are able to predict the direction of |
| holds the non-linear nature of the new science of | | | | their environment, are able to exercise control |
| strategic thinking allows us to understand natural | | | | over the environment, "or simply to assume its |
| order on its own terms.StrategyDoes strategy | | | | stability." "Because analysis is not synthesis, |
| have some mythical or mystical property? | | | | strategic planning has never been strategy |
| Leaders and leadership use the word in many | | | | making."Reverse course a little, planning is not a |
| contexts, perhaps not really acknowledging what | | | | bad thing when used in cohort with strategic |
| strategy is. Therefore, a simple working definition | | | | thinking and visionary leadership. It is applying the |
| of strategy for this paper is the deliberate means | | | | controlling element strategy to planning that |
| of attaining an outcome, being visionary.Mintzberg, | | | | causes problems. Morgan argues in favor of plans |
| et al [5] explains that strategies inevitably have | | | | and planning when created in a visionary |
| advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of | | | | framework that can evolve as circumstances |
| setting direction is charting a course; however, the | | | | change. What they insinuate in relating the tail of |
| disadvantage is narrowing vision, hiding dangers. | | | | the "Strategic Termites" is unpredictability of |
| The advantage of focusing effort is coordination | | | | organizational structure. An organization's leader |
| of activity; however, the disadvantage is | | | | does not need a strategic plan to impose order. |
| groupthink. Having a definition of the organization | | | | Order, like in a termite colony, emerges in an |
| provides understanding of the organization; | | | | evolutionary way. Planning is not guided by plans |
| however, the definition may hide the complexity | | | | rather by a sense of know what the organization |
| of the supporting systems. Having a strategy that | | | | wants to ultimately achieve. Ideas, action, and |
| provides consistency establishes order in a way | | | | events occur separately but self-organizing yet |
| that reduces ambiguity; however, creative groups | | | | apparently disorganized groups of termites seize |
| appear to operate with little or no | | | | the opportunity to initiate change.The Future |
| consistency.Strategy involves paradoxes as the | | | | Depends On ItSeeing the future depends on |
| above paragraph suggests. One paradox tells us | | | | foresight. Having a future view and strategically |
| the story of answers and questions, once you | | | | thinking of the future creates a new paradigm, |
| think you have all the answers, someone changes | | | | part of the paradoxes already discussed. One old |
| all the questions. Taylor and Wacker state this | | | | paradigm suggests future thought as a prediction |
| paradox as, "The more you are right, the more | | | | and development of plans based on the prediction. |
| wrong you will be." This contradiction confuses the | | | | Making plans establishes policy necessary to reach |
| reader, if you are right, how can you be wrong? | | | | the predicted future. When the predictions fail to |
| How? The speed of knowledge accelerated | | | | materialize an organization scrambles to recover. |
| beyond our ability to absorb it in our traditional | | | | Another paradigm is the invention of the future. |
| learning pattern.Another paradox for visionary | | | | This means people both construe and become |
| leaders involves predicting the future. Leaders | | | | constrained by the structures they enact and |
| who are successful predictors of the future act | | | | change through practice. Gaspar [7] refers to the |
| as agents destabilizing the present. Taylor and | | | | work of Mintzberg, et al, saying the old paradigms |
| Wacker explain that today's realities and | | | | do not work in future thinking organizations. She |
| tomorrows expectations collide. The allocation of | | | | tells us we must integrate a strategy that includes |
| resources between present and future "produce a | | | | patterns and perspectives with planning and |
| massive future-based political problem with huge | | | | positioning.Take a view of American companies |
| consequences for the present."Strategy at | | | | 100 years ago. Of the top 12 companies 100 |
| WorkThe State of Nebraska recently made | | | | years ago, ten dealt in selling commodities. Today, |
| National news with the passage of LB1024 that, in | | | | of the top 12 U.S. companies, three deal in |
| effect, created segregated school sub-districts in | | | | commodities. The remaining nine companies deal in |
| Omaha. The bill was the Unicameral's way to | | | | services, manufacturing, and high technology [14]. |
| defeat intercity lawsuits claiming "One City - One | | | | The only thing certain is change and business |
| School District." The City of Omaha annexed | | | | leaders must learn to cope with it in order to |
| several small suburban communities to its west, | | | | manage it. Coping with change and managing it |
| provides police, fire, and city services to these | | | | mean businesses can profit from it. The future of |
| communities; however, the communities remained | | | | business is knowledge driven. Countries must be |
| independent school districts.The City of Bellevue | | | | smart, companies must be smart, and people |
| annexed several Sanitary Improvement Districts | | | | must be smart.Countries, companies, and people |
| (SID) to its west, provides police, fire and city | | | | must be equally smart at the same time. To win |
| services to these incorporated SIDs. Previous | | | | the future game, each of the three must |
| mayors and city councils of Bellevue and Papillion | | | | anticipate and adapt to change in order to |
| drew arbitrary boarders marking the fringes of | | | | manage it effectively. Mayor Ryan admitted that |
| the two cities school districts in, what were then, | | | | government is slow to change. By example, he |
| unincorporated zones. Population growth attached | | | | cited the city council established a steering |
| itself close to Bellevue. Now, Bellevue's city limits | | | | committee to investigate whether the city |
| extend beyond the school district boarders. | | | | needed to spend money for computers in the |
| Therefore, Bellevue claims "One City - One School | | | | mayor's office. The city has a web presence but |
| District."By passing this bill, Senator Chambers [6] | | | | the city council did not adopt an intra- and |
| acknowledged formal segregation of the districts. | | | | inter-city email system until the steering |
| LB1024 created two super-districts, one in | | | | committee received confirmation from |
| Omaha, and one in Bellevue. In Omaha, the | | | | surrounding cities of their system usage. The |
| super-district has three independent sub-districts. | | | | mayor is 72; by contrast, the average age of the |
| The independent sub-districts have authority over | | | | city council is about 63. Mayor Ryan recognizes |
| teacher hiring, measures of teacher/student | | | | the value of technology and aggressively seeks |
| success under federal No Child Left Behind, and | | | | younger citizens to enter city government. He |
| administration of their own budget. The | | | | hopes forward thinking younger people will drive |
| super-district has academic authority over the | | | | the risk adverse council toward active and |
| smaller sub-districts.The strongest supporter of | | | | aggressive risk management.Senator Chambers is |
| the LB1024 is the State's strongest proponent of | | | | the longest serving Senator in the Nebraska |
| desegregation. Why did Senator Ernie Chambers | | | | Unicameral. He is 69 years old and suffered racial |
| of the State's 11th district support the bill? He | | | | slurs and isolation from fellow senators when he |
| claimed the Omaha school district is already | | | | took office. Slurs and threats, chalked on his |
| segregated. Segregation re-occurred with the end | | | | capitol office door, remain and he considers these |
| of bussing in 1999. Yet, no Omaha high school is | | | | a badge. He does not appear on the senate floor |
| more than 48 percent African American.Bellevue | | | | in suit and tie. He wears blue jeans and sweat |
| Mayor Jerry Ryan acknowledged the drain on city | | | | shirts in protest to conformity. However, Senator |
| funds fighting to redraw school district lines. The | | | | Chambers seems to exist in an era when racism |
| fight in Bellevue and Papillion is over federal dollars | | | | and segregation were the norm. He rarely seeks |
| to schools with a population of children of military | | | | coalition with other senators preferring to be a |
| families. Offutt Air Force Base is located near | | | | voice of defiance [15].These two leaders view the |
| Bellevue and military dependent children attend | | | | future differently. While one hopes to achieve the |
| elementary and secondary schools in both cities. | | | | future by recruiting younger forward thinking |
| Redrawing district lines would result in more | | | | people into the political system, the other remains |
| federal money to the Bellevue Public School | | | | rooted in the past. Neither manages the future |
| District.Strategic Thinking and VisionReading the | | | | proactively but approach the future based on |
| paragraphs above may leave the reader asking, | | | | present and past experiences not through |
| "What were they thinking?" Recall the paradox of | | | | information seeking, strategic thinking, and |
| predicting the future affects the present in | | | | visionary mental modeling.ConclusionThis paper |
| adverse ways, yet successful leaders operate as | | | | discussed strategy, strategic thinking and vision |
| though the future is now.Another view is that | | | | making, planning, and the future. These are not |
| nothing turns out exactly as expected. This may | | | | separate activities although the discussion |
| leave leaders in an action quandary: Strategic | | | | presents them individually. By recognizing the |
| thinking in the midst of shifting paradigms servers | | | | Lorenz Attractor as a spiral of interacting parts of |
| to help organizations "identify, respond to, and | | | | an organization, one can also find this model fits a |
| influence changes in its environment."Strategic | | | | non-linear process of thinking, vision, and planning. |
| thinking allows leaders to think in terms of | | | | Seeing the future as an evolving present helps |
| opportunities to innovate and influence their future | | | | leaders comprehend that rigid policies based on |
| and the future of their organization. Strategic | | | | formalized strategic plans inhibit response to |
| thinking aids in abandonment of policies and | | | | change.Strategic thinking and vision creation |
| procedures that are outdated, obsolete, or | | | | suggests that leaders continually test their mental |
| ineffective.Strategic thinking is having an | | | | model with new thinking and questioning - |
| awareness of what has not yet taken shape, | | | | progressively looping thinking, vision, and new |
| having foresight. Foresight has a facet that is an | | | | information into new thinking. This cycle process |
| individual ability and behavior and it can be a | | | | allows leaders to anticipate disruptions in the |
| process or activity in business. On a macro level, | | | | business cycle. Leaders who question themselves |
| foresight is a global practice. Note, reaching a | | | | asking, "what if ..." know "what if ..." These leaders |
| macro level must pass from micro - individual, | | | | are future seeking and organizations employing |
| through mezzo - organizational, to reach macro. | | | | these leaders are future seeking learning |
| Foresight starts with the individual leader seeing or | | | | organizations prepared to change before change |
| sensing something better [7].Foresight is more | | | | occurs.This paper does not deny the value of |
| than vision; it is visionary. Being a visionary leader | | | | planning as part of a strategic process. However, |
| means being provocative and questioning rather | | | | rigid planning that does not calculate the shifting |
| than seeing answers. Mintzberg, et al (1998) calls | | | | horizon of organizational development leaves the |
| upon visionary leaders to operate on emotional | | | | company questioning, "What happened," rather |
| and spiritual resources, values, aspirations, and | | | | than "what's happening."Foresight allows for |
| commitment. Leaders need a mental image, build | | | | strategic management, forecasting and positioning |
| a mental model of a desirable future state. The | | | | of an organization. The outcome from foresight in |
| visionary state is as simple as a dream or | | | | business is the anticipated future becoming an |
| complex as a written document outlining the | | | | inevitable future.References:1. Gates, B. (1996). |
| dream in measurable steps.Visionary leaders must | | | | The Road Ahead. New York: Penguin Books.2. |
| next translate the dream of the desirable future | | | | Taylor, J., Wacker, W. with Means, H. (2000). The |
| state into a vision they can share with the | | | | Visionary's Handbook: Nine Paradoxes that will |
| organization. Sharing a vision must be proactive, | | | | Shape the Future of Your Business. New Youk: |
| must be like a theater performance. Mintzberg, et | | | | Harper-Collins Publishers, Inc.3. Holy Bible. New |
| al addresses performance by the leader as a | | | | International Version. Bible Online. Retrieved from |
| rehearsal. Rehearsal is the practice of the vision, | | | | Sanders, T. I. (1998). Strategic Thinking and the |
| learning everything they can about the vision. | | | | New Science: Planning in the midst of chaos, |
| Upon becoming comfortable in rehearsal, the | | | | complexity, and change. New York: The Free |
| leader must openly perform the vision. | | | | Press.5. Mintzberg, M. Ahlstrand, B. & Lampel, J. |
| Performance brings a dream to life; however, | | | | (1998). Strategy Safari: A guided tour through the |
| performance has no value without the attending | | | | wilds of strategic Management. New York: The |
| audience. The organizational audience views the | | | | Free Press.6. Gaspar, J. (2005, August 21-24). |
| performance while feeling empowered to mimic | | | | Corporate foresight - an attempt to listen to the |
| the performance. Organizational mimicking of the | | | | voices futures' generations in the strategy making |
| performance serves as a starting point for | | | | process. Future Studies Department, Corvinus |
| transformation to a higher state of consciousness, | | | | University of Budapest. Retrieved June 15, 2006 |
| becoming, as Senge [8] describes, a learning | | | | from J. Ryan (personal communication, April 28, |
| organization.Bellevue, Nebraska is the third largest | | | | 2006) in discussion of mayoral leadership strategy |
| city in the state. Eight years ago, Jerry Ryan | | | | in a metropolitan community.8. Senge, P. M. (1990). |
| made his first run for Bellevue Mayor winning an | | | | The Fifth Discipline: The art & practice of the |
| election against a popular mayor. Bellevue's | | | | learning organization. New York: Currency and |
| population in 1998 was about 29,000. | | | | Doubleday.9. Morgan, G. (1993). Imaginization: The |
| Improvements in transportation, cost of housing | | | | Art of Creative Management. Newbury Park: Sage |
| and housing developments, and growth in retail | | | | Publishing, Inc.10. Hill, C. W. L. & Jones, G. R. (1998). |
| and commercial ventures has caused an explosion | | | | Strategic Management: An integrated approach. |
| in population to almost 50,000 with an extended | | | | Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.11. Davis, S. |
| sphere of services into not yet annexed | | | | (1996). Future Perfect. Reading, MA: |
| developments of an additional population of about | | | | Addison-Wesley.12. Ong Teck Mong, T. (2006, |
| 15,000.In the May 2006 primary, Mayor Ryan [9] | | | | May 7). Anticipating and Managing Change: The |
| ran against a field of opponents. Mayor Ryan ran | | | | Key to Future Success. Asian Institute of |
| on the ideal that Bellevue has reached a size that | | | | Management 37th Commencement Ceremonies. |
| requires a full time mayor devoted to the city. | | | | Retrieved June 16, 2006 from Ernie Chambers. |
| Opponents, all in their seventies, do not share his | | | | (2006). Wikipedia. Retrieved May 31, 2006 from |
| view. Mayor Ryan won the majority of primary | | | | Blackman, D. A. and Henderson, S. (2004). How |
| votes telling the city his vision. In interview with | | | | foresight creates unforeseen futures: the role of |
| Mayor Ryan, he expressed how hard it is to run a | | | | doubting. Futures, 36. 253-266.15. Johnson, T. A. |
| city of 50,000 part-time. "Citizens think I run the | | | | (2000). An Intellectual and Political Biography of |
| city. They are not aware that it is the City Council | | | | Nebraska State Senator Ernest Chambers: |
| that approves all action. And, the City Council | | | | Activist, Statesman, and Humanist, 1937-. Plains |
| doesn't want a full time mayor," said Ryan in | | | | Humanities Alliance: Events. Retrieved May 31, |
| interview. "If there is one thing I've failed to do," | | | | 2006 from Nadler, D. A. and Tushman, M. L. |
| said Ryan, "is adequately share my thinking and | | | | (1997). Competing by Design: The Power of |
| vision within the council."In the "One City - One | | | | Organizational Architecture. New York: Oxford |
| School District" battle in Omaha, the school district | | | | University Press.17. Somasegar (No First Name) |
| argued that incorporation of suburban districts into | | | | (2006, January 21). Strategic Thinking. Retrieved |
| Omaha would create a broader tax base, allow | | | | June 2, 2006 from Hoffman is a student at |
| for creation of magnet schools throughout the | | | | Regent University studying toward a Doctor of |
| district, and more equitably share resources. | | | | Strategic Leadership, holds a MA, Leadership and |
| Senator Chambers, in support of LB1024, argued | | | | BS, Organizational Communication. He is an adjunct |
| that schools already segregated would have more | | | | at Bellevue University and Metropolitan |
| administrative control over their districts to create | | | | Community College. |
| educational opportunities for racially distinct schools | | | | |