| Blessed with Chinese GDP growth rates
| |
| | moribund banking system and enact anti
|
| (7-8% annually in each of the last 3
| |
| | money laundering measures. It took
|
| years) and German inflation (4%, down
| |
| | crushing pressure by IFI's to force the
|
| from 32% in 1997, mostly attributable to
| |
| | government to hive off the Savings Bank's
|
| increases in energy and housing costs),
| |
| | pension plan business into Albapost, the
|
| it is easy to forget Albania's Somali
| |
| | local Post Office.In the intervening
|
| recent past.In 1997, following the
| |
| | years, Albania got its fiscal act
|
| collapse of a series of
| |
| | together (though its tax base is still
|
| politically-sanctioned pyramid schemes in
| |
| | minimal) and made meaningful inroads into
|
| which one third of the impoverished
| |
| | the informal economy (read: organized
|
| population lost its meager life savings,
| |
| | crime), not least by dramatically
|
| Albania imploded. The mob looted 700,000
| |
| | improving its hitherto venal and
|
| guns from the armories of the army and
| |
| | smuggler-infested customs service. A
|
| the police and went on a rampage, in
| |
| | collateral registry has been introduced
|
| bloody scenes replete with warlords,
| |
| | and much debated bankruptcy and mediation
|
| crime, and 1500 dead. It took 5% of GDP
| |
| | laws may be enacted next year.
|
| to recapitalize Albania's tottering banks
| |
| | Everything, from the operations of the
|
| and overall GDP dropped by 7% that year.
| |
| | Central Bank to the executive branches is
|
| During the two preceding years, Albania
| |
| | being revamped. Those who remained in
|
| has been the IMF's poster boy (as it is
| |
| | Albania are much more invigorated than
|
| again nowadays). Since October 1991, the
| |
| | they have been in a long time.But the
|
| World Bank has approved 43 projects in
| |
| | problems are structural. Albania is among
|
| the country, committed close to $570
| |
| | the few countries in our post-modern
|
| million and disbursed two thirds of its
| |
| | world which rely on agriculture (55%)
|
| commitments. This, excluding $100 million
| |
| | rather than industry (24%), or services
|
| after the 1999 Kosovo crisis and $50
| |
| | (21%). Only 40% of the population live in
|
| million for agricultural development.The
| |
| | cities and female illiteracy is still at
|
| European Investment Bank (EIB), the EBRD,
| |
| | 24%. Tourism (especially of the
|
| the EU, and the Stability Pact have
| |
| | archeological kind) is promising. But
|
| committed billions to the region for
| |
| | there are less than 6 computers and 40
|
| infrastructure, crime fighting, and
| |
| | phones per 1000 citizens and less than
|
| institution building projects. Albania
| |
| | 40% of the roads are paved (Albanians
|
| stood to benefit from this infusion and
| |
| | were forbidden to own private cars until
|
| from a future Stabilization and
| |
| | 1985). FDI amounts to a measly $50
|
| Association Agreement with the EU
| |
| | million a year and aid per capita has
|
| (similar to Macedonia's and Croatia's).
| |
| | tripled to c. $160 since 1997. Pervasive
|
| Yet, as Chris Patten (the Commissioner in
| |
| | electricity shortages (despite budget
|
| charge of aid) himself admitted to "The
| |
| | draining subsidies of imported energy)
|
| Economist": "The EU'S capacity for making
| |
| | hamper economic activity. Albania was
|
| political promises is more impressive
| |
| | rated 100th (out of 174) in the UNDP's
|
| than our past record of delivering
| |
| | Human Development Index and 90th (out of
|
| financial assistance". The aid was
| |
| | 175) in UNICEF's Report on the State of
|
| bungled and mired in pernicious
| |
| | the World's Children (under-five
|
| bureaucratic infighting. The EU's
| |
| | mortality). Its neighbors ranked
|
| delegation in Tirana was recently
| |
| | 55-73.The isolationist legacy of the
|
| implicated in "serious financial
| |
| | demented and paranoid Enver Hoxha is only
|
| irregularities".The economic picture (if
| |
| | partly to blame. Mismanagement,
|
| notoriously unreliable official
| |
| | corruption, the criminalization of
|
| statistics are to be trusted) has been
| |
| | society, and tribalism are equally at
|
| mixed ever since.The budget deficit
| |
| | fault in post-Communist Albania. Everyone
|
| hovers around 9% (similar to Macedonia's,
| |
| | takes bribes - not surprising when a
|
| Albania's war ravaged neighbor). The
| |
| | senior Minister earns less than $1000 a
|
| (very soft and very long term) external
| |
| | month (ten times the average salary). A
|
| debt is at a nadir of 28% of GDP (though
| |
| | well developed, though fast eroded,
|
| still 150% of exports) and foreign
| |
| | social (extended family, village, tribe)
|
| exchange reserves cover more than 4
| |
| | safety net ensures that only 20% of the
|
| months of imports. This is reflected in
| |
| | population are under the official poverty
|
| the (export averse) stable exchange rate
| |
| | line. But these extended ties are one of
|
| of the lek. But the overall public debt
| |
| | the reasons for local unemployment
|
| is much higher (70%) and the domestic
| |
| | (almost 20% of the workforce) - immigrant
|
| component may well be unsustainable.
| |
| | workers (mostly family members)
|
| Money supply is still roaring (+12%),
| |
| | constitute more than 25% of those
|
| interest rates are punishingly high (8%
| |
| | employed.With a youthful (32) Prime
|
| p.a.) though in steep decline, and GDP
| |
| | Minister (Ilir Meta, overwhelmingly
|
| per capita is less than $1000. It is
| |
| | re-elected this year) who is an economist
|
| still one of Europe's poorest countries
| |
| | by profession, Albania is reaching out to
|
| (especially its rural north). Most of its
| |
| | its neighbours. As early as 1992 it
|
| GDP growth is in construction and trade.
| |
| | joined the improbable (and hitherto
|
| Health and education are decrepit and
| |
| | ineffective) Black Sea Economic
|
| deteriorating. And people vote with their
| |
| | Cooperation Pact (with Greece, Turkey and
|
| feet (emigrate in droves) and wallets
| |
| | ... Azerbaijan and Armenia!) - which
|
| (the economy is effectively
| |
| | currently lobbies for the re-opening of
|
| dollarized).Privatization receipts which
| |
| | the Danube River. Albanian cheap exports
|
| were supposed to amortize public debt did
| |
| | are competitive only if transported via
|
| not materialize (though there were some
| |
| | river. Albania signed recently a series
|
| notable successes in 2000, including the
| |
| | of bilateral agreements with Montenegro
|
| completion of the privatization of land
| |
| | regarding transportation on the Bojana
|
| and of the important mining sector).
| |
| | river and the Skadar Lake, use of
|
| Negative sentiment towards emerging
| |
| | harbors, the extension of railways and
|
| economies, Albania's proximity to the
| |
| | roads, and the regulation of aviation
|
| Kosovo and Macedonia killing fields, and
| |
| | rights. Despite the fact that Macedonia
|
| global recession make this prospect even
| |
| | is (abnormally for geographical
|
| more elusive. Had it not been for the
| |
| | neighbors) not an important trading
|
| $500 million in remittances from 20% of
| |
| | partner, Albania has responded positively
|
| the workforce who are employed in Greece
| |
| | to all the Macedonian initiatives for
|
| and Italy - Albania would have been in
| |
| | economic and political integration of the
|
| dire straits. Money from Albanian drug
| |
| | region. It is here, in regional
|
| dealers, immigrant smugglers, and other
| |
| | collaboration and synergy, that Albania's
|
| unsavory characters still filters in from
| |
| | future rests. Should the region
|
| Prague, Zurich, and the USA. These
| |
| | deteriorate once more into mayhem and
|
| illicit - but economically crucial -
| |
| | worse, Albania would be amongst the first
|
| funds may explain the government's foot
| |
| | and foremost to suffer. Hence its
|
| dragging on the privatization of the
| |
| | surprisingly conciliatory stance in the
|
| omnipresent Savings Bank (83% of all
| |
| | recent crisis in Macedonia. It seems that
|
| deposits, no loans, owns 85% of all
| |
| | Albanian politicians have wisely decided
|
| treasury bills, 2% net return on equity)
| |
| | to move from a "Great Albania" to a
|
| and its reluctance to overhaul the
| |
| | prosperous one.
|
