| KATHMANDU, Nepal -- When disaster specialist | | | | airport operation." |
| Amod Dixit looks out his window in Kathmandu, | | | | As witnessed in Haiti, managing the relief effort |
| he sees collapsed bridges, demolished hospitals, | | | | for a disaster on the scale of the one expected |
| schools reduced to rubble and dusty corpses lying | | | | here presents a tremendous challenge -- even |
| in the street, the nightmare of Port-au-Prince | | | | with the U.S. military's Southern Command only |
| revisited on his Himalayan home. | | | | 700 miles away in Miami. The conventional wisdom |
| Read more about Earthquakes and 2012 at | | | | is that rescuers have just 72 hours to pull people |
| "Unfortunately, that is the reality (of what we are | | | | out of the rubble, after which any survivor is |
| facing), if not worse," said Dixit. "If Kathmandu is | | | | considered a fluke. And despite the herculean |
| impacted with a shaking of an intensity IX on the | | | | efforts deployed in Port-au-Prince, relief workers |
| Mercalli intensity scale, the aftermath is going to | | | | were only able to save about 130 people from |
| be much worse than in Haiti." | | | | among a hundred thousand who were buried alive. |
| Unlike the more commonly known Richter scale, | | | | The answer clearly lies in prevention -- or |
| which measures the magnitude of an earthquake | | | | mitigation -- rather than rescue. There, too, |
| at its epicenter, the Mercalli scale measures the | | | | Nepal's situation is grim. |
| intensity of shaking in specific locations -- basically | | | | "My preoccupation is how do we reduce the |
| by measuring the destruction of buildings and | | | | number of people we have to extract from the |
| natural structures. | | | | rubble," said Robert Piper, the head of the United |
| Dixit has every reason to be worried. The climax | | | | Nations' humanitarian effort in Nepal. "That's the |
| of the collision between tectonic plates that thrust | | | | mitigation measures, and that's where our |
| up the Himalayas, Nepal is criss-crossed by | | | | preparedness is nothing short of pathetic." |
| geologic fault lines -- some of which have been | | | | Piper is one of the driving forces behind a |
| building up pressure for centuries. Even if it | | | | pioneering effort to change that. Bringing together |
| happens 185 miles away, an earthquake that | | | | a consortium including the U.N., the Red Cross, the |
| measures 6 or 7 in magnitude on the Richter | | | | Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, the |
| scale at its epicenter could generate level VIII, IX | | | | $130 million project aims simultaneously to ramp |
| or even X level shaking on the Mercalli scale in | | | | up Nepal's ability to respond to a major |
| Kathmandu. | | | | earthquake and mitigate its effects by improving |
| In other words, many believe Kathmandu is | | | | the structures of schools and hospitals -- |
| overdue for more devastating shaking than the | | | | potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives. |
| IX level disaster that flattened Haiti this January. | | | | "It's not going to save every life," said Piper. "We |
| The last time a quake like that struck here, in | | | | can't retrofit every building in the Kathmandu |
| 1934, a quarter of all the homes in the country | | | | Valley. But if we retrofit all the schools, if we fix |
| were destroyed, dozens of revered ancient | | | | the hospitals, if we shift the bridges, if we put |
| monuments collapsed and more than 20,000 | | | | water sources in where people are going to be |
| people lost their lives. The next "big one" could be | | | | evacuated ... we're going to have an impact." |
| much worse -- especially here in the Kathmandu | | | | Read more about Earthquakes and 2012 at |
| Valley, a bowl that will trap and amplify the wave | | | | It's Dixit's NSET that's shown the way forward, |
| of energy. | | | | or at least the first step. Realizing that demolishing |
| Read more about Earthquakes and 2012 at | | | | and rebuilding 32,000 public schools would be |
| "Chile has had a huge magnitude earthquake in the | | | | impossible for a country with a per capita income |
| past, and as a medium income country it has the | | | | of less than $500, the local organization has |
| resources and institutions in place that have built | | | | shown that it's feasible to retrofit schools to |
| earthquake-resistant housing and infrastructure," | | | | prevent loss of life -- if not always the loss of the |
| said Saurabh Dani, disaster management specialist | | | | building -- for as little as $30,000. And in outlying |
| for the World Bank's South Asia team. "Haiti and | | | | areas where costs escalate dramatically for |
| Nepal are both low income countries, with poor | | | | concrete and rebar, almost any material, including |
| building standards, (and) even if the magnitude of | | | | traditional adobe, can be adapted to |
| the earthquake is less than the one in Chile, the | | | | earthquake-safe designs. So far NSET has |
| impact in loss of life would be catastrophic." | | | | retrofitted some 200 schools, providing a strong |
| Since 1997, the population of the Kathmandu | | | | proof of concept. |
| Valley has doubled, from about 1.5 million people | | | | Dixit says that over the last decade, NSET has |
| to more than 3 million. Of more serious concern, | | | | shown that preparing for disaster is not as costly |
| the population density has also increased | | | | as once imagined, that the knowledge and |
| dramatically. Each year, between 10,000 and | | | | technology to make a difference is available, and |
| 20,000 new buildings mushroom, most of them | | | | developing countries don't have to be distressed |
| constructed with little more than a wink and a nod | | | | that only rich nations can afford safety. But |
| to the building code, with higher floors built off the | | | | proving that is far from enough. |
| books, concrete watered down to save on | | | | "Our school program is very famous, and |
| material, structural columns eliminated and | | | | everybody likes it, and we have been invited to |
| emergency exits ignored. When the big one | | | | other countries to talk about it, but there's a |
| comes, two-thirds of them will collapse, and the | | | | tremendous sense of guilt with us that we have |
| casualty rate will be high. | | | | only been able to go out to 200 schools," said |
| "The density of the population in each household | | | | Dixit. "That is a gloomy picture." |
| has seen dramatic growth, so the lethality of the | | | | Even for stopgap measures like retrofitting, the |
| earthquake will be much higher (than we once | | | | challenges are enormous. Awareness of the risks |
| expected)," said Dixit. "Our estimate (of 10 years | | | | is high, but poor people are still inclined to cut |
| ago) of 40,000 dead and 100,000 people injured | | | | corners to save construction costs. Kathmandu |
| and requiring hospitalization could easily be doubled | | | | has no mayor to ride herd on building inspectors, |
| -- or make it two-and-a-half times or three times." | | | | fire chiefs and other officials responsible for |
| And that's only the beginning. Unlike Haiti, Nepal is | | | | making the city safe. And national politicians -- |
| a landlocked country, with the high peaks of the | | | | notoriously reluctant to focus on issues that won't |
| Himalayas separating it from neighbors, like India | | | | gain them any political capital until years down the |
| and China, that could aid in relief efforts. The only | | | | road, if at all -- are now wrapped up in a complex |
| lifeline for supplies and rescue teams for | | | | peace process following a decade-long civil war. |
| Kathmandu will likely be the small, single-runway | | | | So although everyone knows that if the big one |
| airport. And there are no guarantees that its air | | | | were to hit tomorrow, the loss of life would be |
| traffic control system, or its water, electricity and | | | | nothing short of catastrophic, in Dixit's words it's |
| fuel supply will survive the first wave of tremors. | | | | up to the banks, the ambassadors and the U.N. to |
| "There is no emergency response plan for the | | | | take up the baton now. |
| airport," said Dixit. "There's a plan for emergency | | | | "It's a crime not to have an earthquake resistant |
| landings, but I've not seen or been told about any | | | | building in Kathmandu. It's a gross crime," said |
| earthquake emergency contingency plan for | | | | Dixit. |