It Can't Happen Here - Katrina And The California Earthquake

"The Bay Area has the highest concentration ofOverpass. In that catastrophic event, the
earthquake faults in the world."responsibility for commanding the massive
-Bill Lettis, earth sciences consultant.response and rescue operations fell upon Battalion
What happened in New Orleans and the GulfChief Manny Navarro. He was surprised to see,
Coast of the United States was not only thefirsthand, that the greatest number of rescues
worst natural disaster in the history of thiswere not made by the million-dollar earth-moving
country, but also the loudest wake-up call everequipment, not the fire engines or the ambulances
experienced by our comfortable over-confidentor the sonar devices. The greatest number of
society. We never dreamed something of suchrescues were made by the people who lived near
horror and magnitude could ever happen here -the freeway, in the neighborhood.
even though all the TV meteorologists told us itWhy? Because in the first crucial moments, they
might, then days before the storm hit land, toldwere already there. They rushed to help, climbing
us it would.up on dangerously unstable broken structures to
"The bad news: The chances of the Big Onepull people out and hand them down to others
happening in the next 30 years are about 90%,waiting to receive them below, and carry them to
and the odds are that it will be in our own backa safe area. With no equipment and no training,
yard."they responded as human beings and did
-reporter Chris Treadway, Montclarion Januarywhatever they could. In his own words, Chief
1999.Navarro was professionally and personally
Along the West Coast from Canada to Mexico,"stunned." Later he said (and I paraphrase, but this
we still think the Big Quake won't really happen,is essentially accurate) "I realized we're spending
even though we've been told repeatedly bythe most money for the fewest results. It was
every geologist and every emergency responseobvious - We should be training the people in the
and emergency management agency that it will.neighborhood." And that became a priority of the
The odds of Katrina happening were extremelyOakland Fire Department, and would ultimately
small - less than a 1% probability. The odds of theresult in legislative mandate at the state level..
Big Quake have been reported conservatively atNow, in theory at least, every citizen in California
about 70% probability, and by the specialists incan receive Disaster Preparedness and Disaster
the trenches, 90%.Response Training. However there are some
In the next 30 years, by the way, doesn't meanshortfalls. Over the years, municipal OES (Offices
after 30 more years (hello) it means any timeof Emergency Services, which usually direct the
now, within this 30 year span. It could be today,citizen training, overseen by Fire or Police
or tonight while you sleep. How prepared are we?Department administration) have had repeated
There is no question of IF it will happen; the onlystaffing and funding cuts. They've been cut,
question is WHEN, and Katrina surely is telling ustrimmed, and cut some more. (You know the drill.)
we'd best not wait till the last minute to do whatAnd sometimes, scheduled citizen's courses can
we can to prepare. That will be way too late..be canceled, delayed, or otherwise trumped by
Here are a few things we DO know:other (higher priority?) activities of the agencies
1. The areas of destruction probably will be vast,that oversee them.
and potentially spread over a much larger areaPerhaps that's what happened to the Disaster
than Katrina.First Aid all-day training course and Hands-On
2. Those areas will look a lot like New Orleans did,Workshops.
except possibly there will be less flooding andThe CORE volunteers and instructors are serious
more bleeding.and dedicated. This program is important, and
3. There will be thousands more physical andspirited in the way things used to be when people
trauma injuries, as structures collapse on people,were really neighbors to each other. That
and buildings and cars trap or crush people, andperspective is no longer old-fashioned - and we
torn power lines cause electrocutions and fires.had better wake up to the reality - it has become
4. The Big Quake is likely to be worse thana survival necessity.
Katrina. I won't say more; you already know this.When a massive disaster happens and thousands
5. All city, county, and state Disaster Planning andof people are injured, NO city has thousands of
Response agencies have been telling us sinceambulances, or thousands of empty hospital beds.
1989, very clearly and specifically, that everyAnd even worse, virtually ALL of the hospitals in
citizen should expect and be prepared to managethe East Bay are sitting within one mile or less
on our own without outside help for at least 24from an active earthquake fault line. Even if there
hours to three days immediately following aare roads open, and even if you could get to a
major disaster of any kind.hospital, it might be destroyed, or shut down and
6. An abundance of information and detailedevacuated. If nobody can help us for 24 hours or
instructions have been published and widelymore, as they realistically predict, how can we
distributed for free, everywhere on the Westsurvive? We will have to help ourselves and each
Coast. Have you read some of it?other. Do you know how? Can you spare a few
7. The State of California (and I believe Oregonhours a week to learn?
and Washington as well) has mandated everyFree or very inexpensive classes have been
county and city to provide disaster preparednessavailable in West Coast cities for 15 years, and
and civilian disaster response training for theirother courses are available through many
citizens. Do you know where to get it?employers and corporations. Have some folks in
The majority of these training programs areyour neighborhood or at your job taken them?
based on a similar framework called CERTDoes anybody know what to do? Does anybody
(Citizens Emergency Response Training) or NERTcare?
(neighborhood Emergency Response Training) andA final thought: Let a start be made.
the training is provided through either Police or FireIt's not like it's something really hard and difficult
Departments. Oakland California has its ownto do. Almost anyone can do it. You can do it too,
program called CORE (Citizens of Oaklandfor yourself, for your family. Your kid's school can
Respond to Emergency) which contains most ofdo it. If you have any kind of neighborhood group,
the elements of CERT.softball team, bridge club, poker night, bowling
Common weak points in most citizen trainingteam, park or community center, you've already
programs have been:got the groundwork laid to start a neighbrhood
1. They often have inadequate staffing andCERT group right there.
funding (most are free to the citizens) andMany of the countless people who died in the
2. Most of them use some type of (oftenKatrina Hurricane and flood were not initially hurt
sketchy) version of "Standard" First Aid. (See theby the storm's destruction. Hundreds died because
article "Why Isn't Standard First Aid Goodthey did not have drinking water. The human
Enough")body can go about 3 days without water and
"One thing we know about the Bay Area is thatthen, pretty much, it dries up and dies. Everyone
there is no escape - we all live near a fault-line."knew the storm was coming. Anyone could have
-Bill Lettis, earth sciences consultant.stored some clean water while they still had it, in
The evolution of Oakland's CORE program beganplastic bottles or whatever. But they didn't.
in 1989 with the Loma Prieta Earthquake and theWhat are you going to do when 911 can't come?
collapse of a mile of freeway at the Cypress