Is the Stock Market "Disaster Drop" Really Inevitable?

The newest James Bond movie "Casino Royale" iscompanies you invest in appreciate their
in part based on the theory that Osama Benemployees' efforts.
Laden and other terrorist groups profited fromD is for Drill
the down turn in the stock market followingYou have dry runs of your disaster plan. Just as
September 11, 2001 and other disasters. Theyou have a routine procedure for a fire drill, the
movie suggests that a terrorist organizationcompanies you invest in should perform disaster
heavily invested in puts could cause a wholesaledrills. If they don't, panic will set in and their mind
sell of stocks in an entire industry and profit fromwill shut down and your portfolio will suffer. When
the ensuing options rush.the mind shuts down, people revert to what is
History certainly support the viability of thisfamiliar--the day-to-day routine they've always
approach. The stock market and airline stocksdone--not what they should be doing in a disaster.
dropped after 9/11. When a private plane strayedThe companies in your portfolio must dedicate
over the nation's capital in 2005, the stock marketthemselves to the entire process and drill.
fell as America held it's collective breath and theY is for You
tragic crash of a private plane into an apartmentFor businesses, it comes down to you--each
building in New York City was followed by anotherindividual and each employer. Take responsibility
drop in the market that only reversed when itfor all your actions and your investments. Don't
became clear that the crash was merely an overbe part of the selling panic. Plan ahead and be part
publicized accident.of the recovery solution.
While the drop in the stock market after 9/11Finally, let's P.L.A.N.
was unavoidable, the drops following theseP is for People
non-terrorism events was NOT inevitable. AllThe first step in making your plan is to take an
these events resulted in a business and stockinventory of who will be participating. If you are
market panic that many "experts" have calledmaking a plan for your family, consider who will
both unpredictable and unavoidable.be with you and how to prepare each person for
These "experts" are wrong. To avoid being partthe disaster. If you have small children, you may
of that statistic, you must "Be D.I.S.A.S.T.E.R.need to talk to them about what is happening,
R.E.A.D.Y. & P.L.A.N. Each letter in theand reassure them that everything will be all right.
mnemonic stands for a key item in your disasterAlso, what tasks will each person perform? If
preparation checklist.you're facing a hurricane, who will board up the
Go through each letter and take the necessarywindows? Who will make sure the dog gets into
action. While this is not something you willthe car if you evacuate? Each person should have
complete in an hour, you do need to starta function in ensuring the safety and security of
now--long before any disaster. When you caneveryone else. Even children can participate. A
check all these items off your list, you will be assmall task might make a child feel more
prepared as possible for any disaster that maypurposeful, like a critical part of the plan, rather
come your way and your business will survive.than a helpless bystander. So if your children are
Let's start with D.I.S.A.S.T.E.R.:old enough to take part, put them in charge of
D is Detectthe extra batteries or have them fill the water
Detect your own vulnerabilities and those of yourbottles.
community. You have geographic vulnerabilitiesLikewise, if you are making a plan for your
and competitive vulnerabilities. You also havebusiness, consider who will participate and what
emotional vulnerabilities. The stock marketrole each person will fill. If you plan to close, you
dropped after the capital sirens sounded becauseneed to know who will be involved in the closing
those making the trades failed to detect theirdecision, and how you will secure the premises. If
own fear of terrorist attack. If you identify youryou decide to stay open, your plan is even more
fear and prepare to respond calmly andimportant because you will be responsible for the
effectively, you now have a competitivesafety of your employees.
advantage.Other people in your plan include contacts outside
Detect your community's needs too. Considerthe disaster zone. You need someone to serve as
how your business can help. If so, you've justa message board for communication. Then
detected a unique advantage you can offer toeveryone involved in your plan can call in and let
the community in the event of an emergency.the centralized person know they are safe and
I is In Chargetheir location. If you decide to leave, you need
Every community has one person in command insomeone out of state whom you can stay with.
case of a disaster. That person, the "incidentFinally, consider what outside facilities you are
commander," has a set of responsibilities togoing to rely on. If you have unanticipated
delegate that filters down through an establishedemergencies, who are you going to call? Are they
structure. Find out who is in that incidentgoing to be able to get to you? If your entire plan
command position now and ask how you couldis to call 911 and get assistance, you need to
help become a part of that structure. If you waitrealize that in a disaster situation they probably
until disaster strikes, your offers of help may bewon't be able to assist you for seventy-two
too late. Do it now. The use of the Incidenthours. In this case, you will need to reassess your
Command model also helps prevent "panic selling"plan.
by filtering all decisions through one person.L is for Leave
S is SafetyNext, consider leaving the disaster zone. When
Know where your safety vulnerabilities are. Willand how will you leave (evacuate)? Where will you
the potential terrorist attack directly affect yougo and how will you get there? Will your family or
or your place of business? If you were to losefellow evacuees meet before you leave or when
power or cellular phone service, how will thatyou arrive at your destination? The decision to
affect your business? Be prepared. If you ownleave makes communication and your contacts
stock, you will feel vulnerable. But are you? Askoutside the disaster zone critically important. How
yourself, would a successful attack really affectwill you communicate while you evacuate and
the stock price in the long term.after you arrive at your destination? What are
A is Assessyou going to do if you get separated? Operate on
Assess your situation--either your current one ora buddy system; no one should be left alone.
the potential one during a disaster. If keeping yourWhen you and your family or business associates
business open is not safe, or if your employeesbecome mobile, make sure everyone knows the
have urgent personal or family needs during aplan. Then, if your plan fails, you need an
crisis, you need to take responsibility for that andalternative.
be realistic. Assess whether it is safe to continueIf you are not leaving, consider where will you
to be open and ask yourself if your employeesstay and how will you stay safe. Will you all stay
have needs that are outside of the business. Iftogether or shelter in the place you are when the
so, make allowances for those. You don't have todisaster strikes? Will you send some of your
stay open 24/7 or put yourself or yourfamily to your evacuation destination while others
employees at risk. Letting your employees knowstay? All these factors need careful consideration
that their personal needs are important will gainand planning.
you their trust and loyalty. Track the effect theA is for Anticipate / Adapt
event has had on your portfolio and theUnfortunately, in a disaster situation, nothing
companies in which you invest.always goes as planned. So anticipate plan failures
S is Supportand plan for the "what ifs." This is a chance to
Support works both ways. The easiest way tobrainstorm. Make a list of all the possible failures.
get support during an emergency situation is toWhat if the phone lines go down? What if your
give it as part of the support team. Allbasement floods? What if you get caught in
emergency response managers are taught totraffic? No "what if" is too extreme to consider.
reach in their community and makeThe only possibility that you can't plan for is the
pre-arrangements for the resources they need.one you didn't think of.
These are called mutual aid agreements. ApproachOnce you've brainstormed possible failures, you
the emergency response manager and say, "I canneed to adapt to each one with an alternate plan.
provide you the following things. Will that be ofIf the phone lines go down, can you use your cell
help?" You will most likely get a yes, especially ifphone? If your basement floods, can you seek
you do this ahead of time. You will be written intoshelter with a neighbor or in some other nearby
the county's plan. Be prepared to deliverlocation? If you get caught in traffic, will you have
whatever you promise. An advantage to you isenough gas to evacuate successfully?
that when you have a need, you are alreadyWhat if something happens that you didn't
known to the people with the power. And sinceanticipate? If you go through this process enough
you've already detected what kind of supporttimes and really work on your plan, then you will
you'll need, you can ask for it in advance.be able to adapt to the failure. You're mind will be
T is Triageprimed and you'll be ready to think of alternatives,
Triage means to do the most good for the mosteven if the failure isn't anticipated beforehand.
people with limited resources. Even if you've beenAnticipate that events will not unfold as planned.
the best person and the most helpful to yourBe flexible. Adapt to the unexpected.
community, if your needs are minor you will haveRemember: "Sempier Gumby" - "Always Flexible"
to wait longer than someone whose needs areN is for Needs
greater. The person with the greatest need willIn any disaster situation, you must be ready to
get help first--no matter when they ask. Adoptgo for seventy-two hours without assistance.
the same principle with your business resources. IfThose first seventy-two hours are critical
you own stock, see how the businesses theybecause emergency relief will be overwhelmed
represent have been effect by the completedduring that time. Fire departments, police, and
attack. Once you have made this analysis, repeatmedical personnel won't have the resources to
your standard due diligence for each stock. Thenget to everyone.
and only then will you know what to keep, whatAfter hurricane Katrina, many people died simply
to buy and what to sell. Even though it may be abecause they ran out of food and water in those
hard decision to make, you are really benefitingcritical three days. However, four days before
your portfolio.Rita hit Texas, the community leaders were on
E is Exit Strategythe television warning people that if they decided
If you are called to evacuate, go. Orders toto stay, they needed to be prepared for
evacuate usually come in stages. When they tellseventy-two hours because no one would be able
the group you belong to that it's time toto help them.
evacuate, heed the warning--it's unsafe to stay.When working on your plan, make sure you
Rest assured that businesses that are preparedaccount for all your needs for seventy-two hours.
and forced to evacuate in most cases will reopenBe prepared to be self-sufficient during this time.
when it's safe to do so.Each one of your family members must have
R is for Recoverypersonal identification and photos of all others in
Recovery begins with your disaster planning--longyour plan, two quarts (liters) of drinking water,
before the event occurs. Deal with your fear, getseventy-two hours of food, seventy-two hours
counseling, do what it takes to recover.of clothes, two weeks of medications, two
And now for R.E.A.D.Y:weeks of toiletries, a supply of cash (credit/debit
R is for Relycards can't be verified if phone lines go down), a
Now that you've been through the disaster plan,flashlight, a portable radio, batteries, a signal
you need to be ready within your own business.whistle, white/silver duct tape, a first aid kit,
What do you rely on? What do the companies inprepaid calling card, and a list of emergency phone
your portfolio rely on? Are there key employeesnumbers.
or key procedures that only exist in employees'These needs should be kept in a rolling backpack
heads? Write them down now. You and thethat stays with the owner. Keep this bag, your
companies you invest in must keep a copy atDisaster Pack, readily accessible. And if a disaster
business and another off-site at a safe location.is imminent, keep the Disaster Pack with you at
Those processes are important. Are you heavilyall times.
invested in a particular business, geographic areaAre You Ready?
or business sector?Once you have taken an inventory of your
E is for Educatefamily, made arrangements for evacuation,
If you become part of your community response,anticipated and accommodated failures, and
you will need to know how to access people andgathered all your needs for seventy-two hours,
how they can access you. How are they going toyou need to review and practice your plan each
identify themselves? How do you collectyear.
payment? Cash or a trust system? Develop aHurricane situations are timely because of what
written procedure. Make sure your staff knowshappened on the gulf coast, but regardless of
exactly what they should do. They'll take comfortwhat disaster situation you face you must have a
in knowing what procedures to follow in the eventplan. In a tornado, tsunami, terrorist attack, or
of an emergency. Do the companies in yourwhatever, you can use these steps to make
portfolio have a written plan? Learn what thatyour disaster plan and ensure the safety of your
plan entails.family and your business.
A is for AppreciateTake Action
Appreciate your employees every day. Not onlyNothing you do can prevent a disaster. With
will you experience a more pleasant workplace,proper planning, however, your healthcare facility
but in a time of crisis your employees will paycan become "D.I.S.A.S.T.E.R. R.E.A.D.Y." and
you back with their loyalty. In the face of a"P.L.A.N." Identify your strengths and weaknesses.
disaster, continue to appreciate yourIf the worst happens, don't panic. You already
employees--particularly the ones who came back.know the drill and what is expected of you. Be
But still appreciate the ones who couldn't comeready to do your best and activate your plan at
back. Some people will have more pressingthe drop of a hat, ready to help those with the
personal responsibilities than others. Find out if thegreatest need.